MOI Asian Investing Summit 2019 (10-11 April) – VALUE 3.0: Avoiding the Ever-More Value Traps & Investing in a Selected Under-the-Radar Group of Winners with Exponential Edge

This week, we like to share our presentation material for the upcoming MOI Asian Investing Summit 2019 (April 10-11).

CHAPTER ONE | Page 3-20
VALUE 3.0: Avoiding the Ever-More Value Traps & Investing in a Selected Under-the-Radar Group of Winners with Exponential Edge

  • Microsoft’s Satya Nadella Hits Refresh with A.I. & SaaS | The Ascent of the Recurring-Revenue SaaS Business Model
  • The Misunderstood Japan & Salesforce.com | Avoiding FOMO With Highly Profitable & Positive Free Cashflow Generative Innovators
  • Value 3.0: Uncomfortable Structural Break in the Market’s Multi-Year Appraisal of Business Vs Comfortable Mean Reversion in Valuation Over 2-3 Years
  • Linear Vs Non-Linear Business Model: Foxconn/Hon Hai Vs Appen – Both With an Army of 1 Million Workers?
  • Beyond Moat: The Catapult of 4Cs Exponential Edges – Community Edge, Curiosity Edge, Circumspection Edge, Compellingness-Craftsmanship Edge
  • H.E.R.O. : Honorable. Exponential. Resilient. Organization – Philosophy, Framework & Process to Systematically Identify & Invest in Exponential Innovators
  • Avoiding Asian-Style Accounting Tunneling Fraud & Misgovernance Risks; Why Big-4 Audited Listed Asian Companies With Supposedly High Net-Cash & High Margin Unravel In Fraud
  • Valuation & Evolution Path of 10X Compounders
  • Long-Term Investment Returns of Listed Asian SMID-Cap Innovators Vs Can Mega-Cap Tech Elephants Still Dance Under Regulatory Techlash Heat

CHAPTER TWO | Page 21-48; APPENDIX | Page 51-87
(1) Beyond Moat Competitive Advantages: What’s the Exponential Edge? | (2) Variant Perception: What’s the Difference in View? Why Mispriced? | (3) Why Now? Fundamental Catalysts? | (4) Risks: What Can Go Wrong? | (5) Why Undervalued? Why Can It Doubled Over the Next 3-5 Years?

  • XIA Shudong 夏曙东, founder and Chairman of TransInfo Technology 千方科技(SZSE: 002373), China’s #1 intelligent traffic system (ITS) innovator powered by big data & AI
  • SHAO Xue 邵学, founder and Chairman of Beijing Thunisoft 华宇软件 (SZSE: 300271), China’s #1 software/AI innovator in smart judicial court
  • Shokei Suda 須田将啓, founder and CEO of Enigmo Inc (TSE: 3665), Japan’s #1 social fashion C2C eCommerce innovator
  • LEE Kyung-min 이경민, founder of Minwise (KOSDAQ: 214180), Korea’s #1 mobile authentication services & virtual bank account settlement innovator

Download the presentation slides in PDF (Link)

We are thankful as always to be invited by John Mihaljevic, Chairman of MOI Manual of Ideas Global, to speak at the upcoming Asian Investing Summit 2019 to take place live online on April 10-11. We look forward to sharing with the MOI community of investors about the distinctive value opportunity in a selected group of under-the-radar Asian SMID-cap exponential innovators who generate high profitability and positive free cashflow in solving high-value problems for their customers and society with a higher sense of purpose, as well as the learning insights from our investment mistakes as the world shifts structurally from Value 2.0 (the world where Charlie Munger nudged Warren Buffett from the Ben Graham-style of statistically cheap net-net asset plays in Value 1.0 towards Value 2.0 in qualitative investing in outstanding companies at reasonable prices) to Value 3.0 where disruptive innovation forces sweeping across industries create ever more “value trap” losers and a selected under-the-radar group of winners with exponential edge.

Our emotional labor of love over the past months in sharing openly our research ideas (to battle-test our ideas by critiques and avoid blindspots in investing) and setting up the proper regulated and transparent UCITS fund structure to protect investors’ interests has deepened our conviction for the positive change that we will make together with H.E.R.O. – and we are now in the final stage of giving birth in April 2019 to H.E.R.O., the only Asia SMID-cap tech-focused fund in the industry and guarding investors’ interests in the regulated UCITS fund structure with daily NAV & daily liquidity and no exit fees.

To our interested clients who have been asking, we sincerely apologize for the prolonged labor in the birth of HERO over the past months as we have been preparing for a coordinated delivery of our whole family of Swiss fund series and HERO will also be invigorated with the healthy seed from farsighted committed long-term institutional clients to journey far to compound value for investors. Do watch out in the coming weeks for our press release on the birth and launch of H.E.R.O.

If you are not moving forward in this exponential world, you are going backwards. If you want to join us at the leading edge of opportunity, if you identify yourself in the values and bigger sense of purpose in H.E.R.O., or you wish to tell from your heart to your most important person, son, daughter, wife, husband, or best friend that you are a farsighted and thoughtful explorer in the H.E.R.O.’s Journey participating in the long-term exponential growth of a selected group of outstanding entrepreneurs, standing up for the embracement of the human spirit, please contact us via email or WhatsApp at +65 9695 1860. Thank you very much for your patience and support and we look forward to growing exponentially with you as we explore the H.E.R.O.’s Journey together.


It started with rethinking a few questions. Question No. 1: Can the megacap tech elephants still dance? Or is this the better question: Is there an alternative and better way to capture long-term investment returns created by disruptive forces and innovation without chasing the highly popular megacap tech stocks, or falling for the “Next-Big-Thing” trap in overpaying for “growth”, or investing in the fads, me-too imitators, or even in seemingly cutting-edge technologies without the ability to monetize and generate recurring revenue with a sustainable and scalable business model? How can we distinguish between the true innovators and the swarming imitators?
 
Question No. 2: What if the “non-disruptive” group of reasonably decent quality companies with seemingly “cheap” valuations, a fertile hunting ground of value investors, all need to have their longer-term profitability and balance sheet asset value to be “reset” by deducting a substantial amount of deferred innovation-related expenses and investments every year, given that they are persistently behind the innovation cycle against the disruptors, just to stay “relevant” to survive and compete? Let’s say this invisible expense and deferred liability in the balance sheet that need to be charged amount to 20 to 30% of the revenue (or likely more), its inexactitude is hidden; its wildness lurks and lies in wait. Would you still think that they are still “cheap” in valuation?
 
Consider the déjà vu case of Kmart vs Walmart in 2000s and now Walmart vs Amazon. It is easy to forget that Kmart spent US$2 billion in 2000/01 in IT and uses the same supplier as Walmart – IBM. The tangible assets and investments are there in the balance sheet and valuations are “cheap”. Yet Kmart failed to replicate to compound value the way it did for Walmart. Now Walmart is investing billions to “catch up” and stay relevant. Key word is “relevancy” to garner valuation.
 
We now live in an exponential world, and as the Baupost chief and super value investor Seth Klarman warns, disruption is accelerating “exponentially” and value investing has evolved. The paradigm shift to avoid the cheap-gets-cheaper “value traps”, to keep staying curious & humble, and to keep learning & adapting, has never been more critical for value investors. We believe there is a structural break in data in the market’s multi-year appraisal (as opposed to “mean reversion” in valuation over a time period of 2-5 years) on the type of business models, the “exponential innovators”, that can survive, compete and thrive in this challenging exponential world we now live in. Tech-focused innovators with non-linear exponential growth potential are the most relevant multi-year investment trend and opportunity.  
 
During our value investing journey in the Asian capital jungles over the decade plus, we have observed that many entrepreneurs were successful at the beginning in growing their companies to a certain size, then growth seems to suddenly stall or even reverse, and they become misguided or even corrupted along the way in what they want out of their business and life, which led to a deteriorating tailspin, defeating the buy-and-hold strategy and giving currency to the practice of trading-in-and-out of stocks. On the other hand, there exists an exclusive, under-the-radar, group of innovators who are exceptional market leaders in their respective fields with unique scalable business models run by high-integrity, honorable and far-sighted entrepreneurs with a higher purpose in solving high-value problems for their customers and society whom we call H.E.R.O. – “Honorable. Exponential. Resilient. Organization.”, the inspiration behind the H.E.R.O Innovators Fund, (surprisingly) the only Asian SMID-cap tech-focused fund in the industry.
 
The H.E.R.O. are governed by a greater purpose in their pursuit to contribute to the welfare of people and guided by an inner compass in choosing and focusing on what they are willing to struggle for and what pains they are willing to endure, in continuing to do their quiet inner innovation work, persevering day in and day out. There’s a tendency for us to think that to be a disruptive innovator or to do anything grand, you have to have a special gift, be someone called for. We think ultimately what really matters is the resolve — to want to do it, bring the future forward by throwing yourself into it, to give your life to that which you consider important. We aim to penetrate into the deeper order that whispers beneath the surface of tech innovations and to stand on the firmer ground of experience hard won through hearing and distilling the essence of the stories of our H.E.R.O. in overcoming their struggles and in understanding the origin of their quiet life of purpose, who opened their hearts to us that resilience and innovation is an art that can be learned, which can embolden all of us with more emotional courage and wisdom to go about our own value investing journey and daily life.

As the only Asian SMID-cap tech-focused listed equities fund in the industry, we believe we are uniquely positioned as a distinctive and alternative investment strategy for both institutional and individual investors who seek to capture long-term investment returns created by disruptive forces and innovation without herding or crowding to invest in the highly popular megacap tech stocks, and also provide capital allocation benefit to investors in building optionality in their overall investment portfolio.

The H.E.R.O. HeartWare Weekly highlights interesting tech news and listed Asian emerging tech innovators with unique and scalable wide-moat business models to keep yourself well-informed about disruptive forces and innovation, new technologies and new business models coming up, and the companies that ride on and benefit from them in some of the most promising areas of the economy in Asia as part of our thought leadership for our Asia HERO Innovators Fund to add value to our clients and the community. Hope you find the weekly report to be useful and insightful. Please give us your candid feedback and harshest criticisms so that we can improve further to serve you better. Besides the BATTSS (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, TSMC, Softbank, Samsung), do also tell us which Asian tech entrepreneurs & CEOs whom you admire and respect and why – we will endeavor to do up profiles of them for sharing with the community. Thank you very much and have a beautiful week ahead.

Warm regards,
KB | kb@heroinnovator.com | WhatsApp +65 9695 1860
www.heroinnovator.com

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *